According to a recent study published in Nature Climate Change, the increase of temperature drastically impacts wheat crops. The study states that for every degree Celsius the temperature increases, the world loses 6% of its wheat crop. Although 6% might not seem like a large amount, when you look at annual global trade quantities, temperature change accounts for one-fourth of the annual global wheat trade.

University of Florida Professor of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Senthold Asseng, started testing this theory with wheat, as it is one of the world’s most important and used consumable crops. Asseng and his team used a computer model approach to reach the findings on temperature increases and wheat production. “The simulations with the multi-crop models showed that warming is already slowing yield gains, despite observed yield increases in the past, at a majority of wheat-growing locations across the globe,” said Asseng.

Asseng’s team included 50 scientists from 15 countries who worked with 30 wheat crop models and tested them against field experiments where the average season temperatures ranged from 15 to 32 degrees Celsius, or 59 to 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

As temperatures are predicted to increase by two to four degrees Celsius by the end of the century, it is apparent that climate change will result in additional price increases for important agricultural crops, including wheat.  As wheat yields are decreasing, flour is costing bakers more. Higher-priced ingredients are forcing many baking businesses to absorb extra costs, or increase the price for consumers.